Russia Tanks Ukraine - Apparently, Ukraine is not the only country that Russia has been considering attacking in recent years. In the summer of 2020, Russia said it would create a detailed plan to attack and occupy Belarus based on information provided by Ukrainian military intelligence.
"After the falsification of the presidential elections in Belarus, the Russian Federation developed a plan to attack and suppress popular protests," the chief deputy director of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said on April 19. justification and plan for the invasion of Belarus.
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The article pointed out that the "powerful" situation in Belarus after the presidential election on August 9, 2020 was completely wrong. He spoke of the "degrading actions" of opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya since exile in Lithuania and said a "massive information campaign" was being carried out to create the idea of change in the rebel government in Belarus. If this cannot be avoided, the article argues, Russia could be plunged into a major war with NATO.
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The document describes a "plan to upgrade First Army military structures and units in the mission area" to attack Belarus. According to the plan, the soldiers will be sent "under the guise of participation in cooperation with the army of the Republic of Belarus."
The authenticity of the information announced by Ukraine could not be independently verified. If true, Ukrainian intelligence claims a major attack on Belarus is a real possibility in the summer of 2020, less than two years before Russia invades Ukraine.
The existence of Russia's plan to attack Belarus is necessary given the state of relations between Moscow and Minsk when it comes to the August 2020 presidential election in Belarus. In contrast to the current close strategic relationship between Vladimir Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka, there is much tension in the relationship throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020.
Faced with sanctions and a struggling economy, Putin has cut Russian funding and economic aid to Belarus. Moscow also urged Belarus to make several concessions, including hosting a new Russian military base on its territory, deeper integration of the country's armed forces, and accepting restored economic integration and an end to Belarusian power.
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For her part, Lukashenko criticizes these actions and tries to repair Minsk's relations with the West. In early 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went to Belarus to "fix" relations with the country.
In a meeting with Belarusian Foreign Minister Uladzimer Makei at the time, Pompeo said: "The United States wants to help Belarus build its own independent country. Our energy producers are ready to supply 100 percent of the oil you need at competitive prices. Your people. should not be able to depend on a partner for their livelihood or security.
It was a sign at the time that the intelligence of the Russian military, the GRU, and its Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR, surprised Lukashenka's efforts to preserve the independence of Belarus by trying to distance -se from the earth towards the West.
The geopolitical situation has changed dramatically in the last two years for Moscow. Lukashenka's brutal treatment of the opposition after the August 2020 Belarusian presidential election and his disengagement from the West have increased confidence in the Kremlin. The need for a Russian invasion of Belarus appears to have been ruled out.
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Putin has everything he wants in Belarus without firing a shot. Lukashenko is very dependent on the Kremlin, which has allowed Russia to take what amounts to a "soft annexation" of the country. Belarus has become a permanent extension of Russia's Western Military District, and Moscow is eager to expand its economic and political footprint in the country.
Belarus is also caught up in Putin's Ukraine war. Although Minsk has not joined forces in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenka has allowed Russia to use Belarus as an escape zone for Russian troops and has allowed Putin to launch weapons flights into Ukrainian cities from from the border with Belarus.
This supporting role in the conflict has raised concerns that Russia's hegemony in Belarus is in jeopardy. Public opinion in Belarus strongly opposes the war in Ukraine and attempts to disrupt the transit of Russian troops by blocking the country's railway network. Meanwhile, hundreds of Belarusians have joined the volunteer army fighting alongside Ukraine. As the war continued, internal unrest in Belarus intensified.
At the moment, Putin is seen in Ukraine. However, he could also focus on withdrawing Belarusian troops if public opposition to Belarus' involvement in the invasion of Ukraine continues and threatens to undermine Russia's power. According to recent Ukrainian claims, plans for this operation have already been completed.
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Brian Whitmore is a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, assistant professor of practice at the University of Texas at Arlington, and host of The Power Vertical Podcast.
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